Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Price Drop Below $40,000

Bitcoins and a candle chart

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes recently predicted that Bitcoin’s price will fall below $40,000 due to macroeconomic factors. He has purchased some 29 March $35k strike puts and believes that Bitcoin’s decline will continue until the 31 January US Treasury quarterly refunding announcement. Hayes may have purchased put options at a price of 0.025 BTC per share, with a total value of 5 BTC.

A Lack of Optimism in the Short-Term Trajectory of Bitcoin

BitMEX co-founder, Arthur Hayes, may have rattled the crypto market with his recent prediction of Bitcoin’s price plummeting below $40,000. This bearish outlook is grounded in macroeconomic factors, signaling a lack of optimism in the short-term trajectory of the leading cryptocurrency. Hayes has substantiated his prediction by purchasing 29 March $35k strike puts, a financial instrument that profits from a decline in the underlying asset’s value.

$BTC looks mad heavy. I think we break $40k. I went long some 29Mar $35k strike puts. I think we dump into the 31Jan US Treasury qtly refunding annc. Is Janet Yellen or Talkin’? pic.twitter.com/lyjqNmldzh

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) January 22, 2024

Further Descent for BTC

Hayes’ choice to acquire these put options suggests a belief in Bitcoin’s further descent, a conviction echoed in his anticipation of this decline persisting until the 31 Jan U.S. Treasury quarterly refunding announcement. The specifics of his financial move indicate a potential investment of 5 BTC, with each put option priced at 0.025 BTC per share.

In a January 22 X post, Hayes wrote:

$BTC looks mad heavy. I think we break $40k. I went long some 29Mar $35k strike puts. I think we dump into the 31Jan US Treasury qtly refunding annc. Is Janet Yellen or Talkin’?”

A Surprising Strategic Forecast

The significance of Hayes’ prediction reverberates through the crypto community, prompting concerns about its potential repercussions on Bitcoin’s market valuation. However, as of now, Hayes has chosen to remain silent on the underlying motivations behind this strategic move, leaving the crypto community in suspense.

Arthur Hayes, a figure known for his role in founding BitMEX, a major cryptocurrency exchange, holds influence in the crypto space. His predictions, particularly when backed by financial actions like put option purchases, draw attention and speculation from market participants.

As Bitcoin’s price dynamics continue to be a subject of intense scrutiny, Hayes’ forecast introduces an element of uncertainty into the market, underscoring the complexity and sensitivity of cryptocurrency valuations in the broader economic landscape.

Author: Jinka

Jinka is a self-trained crypto journalist, passionate about happenings in the industry.